The Tehran Foreign Policy Studies Quarterly
 

Editor's Note

Misguided Calculations and Negative Balance
Hossein Safdari


 

Misguided Calculations and Negative Balance 

Regardless of his official status، the US president، Donald Trump، proudly took the responsibility of the hideous crime of killing the brave Iranian commander، Haj Qasem Soleimani immediately after he was murdered and said that the killing was directly ordered by he himself. He claimed to have made this decision in order to stop a war. Mike Pompeo، the United States Secretary of States and one of the biggest promoters of democracy and human rights in the world also did his best not to be left outside this childish blood sport and described this terroristic act a courageous mission. He، who is usually known as the United States Secretary of War (instead of the Secretary of the States) in international transformations and equations of the West Asia، didn't limit himself to this level of political flagrancy and overstepped the boundaries even more and shamelessly confessed that he had a part in making the decision، too. He said، "I should mention that I was also a part of this decision-making." 
Assassination of martyr Haj Qasem Soleimani، who had courageously challenged all the arrogant plots of the United States of America even beyond the geographical frontiers of the Islamic Republic of Iran and had openly turned Washington from an unrivaled political system to an ordinary and even defeated government، wasn't quite unexpected for many regional observers and even the martyr Soleimani himself. What was strangely unexpected was that the highest official authority of a superpower of the world would officially take the responsibility of the assassination and be offensively proud of it. The unusual behavior of the broke president of the United States of America and his Secretary of the States isn't merely an excited reaction، but an unconventional act in response to consecutive defeats of their foreign policy system against the brave resistance of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The White House's failures during the past few decades in deterring Iran from attaining the means of power، their lack of success in forcing Iran to renegotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action، their inability to control Iran's missile power، their downfall in neutralizing Iran's regional influence، their mistakes in the equations of Iraq، Syria، Lebanon and Yemen which are Iran's allies and their failure in many other global issues listed in their table of failings have all obliged the officials of the White House to resort to the results of these terroristic missions in order to maybe put a bridge over the defeats and find their way to the illusion of a victory. By an error of judgment which resulted in issuing the order to launch this terroristic operation in Iraq، Trump could remove commander Soleimani from the confrontations with Pentagon forces and Takfiri terrorists (American puppets)، but actually changed the balance of power in West Asia in favor of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The assassination of commander Soleimani wouldn't make the strategic transformations of the region to go the way Pentagon، CIA and the White House intend them. Trump and his consultants were misguidedly thinking that by removing the Iranian senior commander، who had had a significant role in all the defeats that the US has experienced during the past two decades، they would be able to achieve the following goals: 
Add to Trump and America's global credit; 
Leave Iran passive and defeated as a result of this seemingly flash invasion; 
Induce fear and anxiety into the hearts of all the Iran's neighboring countries and subjugate them by flaunting their power after this hideous act; 
End the show of the president's impeachment run by the democrats inside the America's domestic equations and authoritatively turn the equations in favor of Trump. They were under the illusion of changing the political climate of the United States by confronting Iran and forcing the opposition power inside the country to stay silent in order to first resolve the foreign problems with the enemy. 
Lay the ground for Trump's election propaganda and guarantee his victory in it by underlining his victories and hiding the never-ending defeats. 
However، after this terroristic mission of the American military men at dawn of January the third 2020، all their efforts went down the drain and in fact backfired: 
America's international status and prestige in the public opinion all over the world was undermined and the country was demoted to a base terrorist team. The country that expects to lead the world has stepped on a slippery slope by such a big mistake and is now acting as a terroristic team. The United States of America has focused so much on bullying and terroristic behavioral patterns that could no longer assert itself as a powerful constructive country in two or multi-lateral transformations. No country (even America's allies) could any longer trust the selfless interference of the White House. 
Islamic Republic of Iran's swift، open and determined answer to the White House's terroristic invasion by attacking Ain Assad Air Base in Iraq by missiles ended this wrong hypothesis that the US can do anything it wants without thinking of the ramifications. This official stand of the Islamic Republic of Iran which is an answer to any kind of invasion by enemies isn't merely a threat or media propaganda، but a strategic decision and plan based on which Iran can stand any invasion. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution، who is the final determiner of the general policies of the Islamic Republic of Iran، put an emphasis on this decision and said، "We would never lead the country toward the war; however، if the others try to impose pressures on us، we would stand in front of them with all the strength we have." 
What went on revealed Iran's capacities for exertion of regional policies and the United States' weakness in controlling Iran or preventing it from advancing the goals of the Islamic Revolution in the region. The American Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) (associated with Pentagon) assessed Iran's military power as a power advancing its foreign policy goals in a 130-page report and evaluated the intentions، strategies and military capabilities of our country. The agency has mentioned two strategic military goals for Iran: protecting the regime and gaining control over the West Asia region. They have also pointed in this report that، 
"In order to achieve these two goals، employs mixed or hybrid approaches and simultaneously uses conventional and unconventional elements. 
Iran's conventional approach is based on deterrence and the ability to give vengeful response to the invader. 
If the deterrence approach fails، Iran will display its power and determination by incurring serious damages to the enemy and restores the ability to deter by showing off a complete series of its capabilities. 
In order to stabilize its strategic depth، Iran will make use of unconventional fighting methods and a network of military and proxy groups." 
In this report، Iran's use of its missile power to exert its policies are also mentioned; "Tehran is looking for the leadership of a stable regional system in which it can have a controlling affect. It seeks for a state in which its allies remain unharmed، the United States and its regional partners' influence is decreased and the fundamental Suni groups are defeated." 
According to assessments of the US Defense Intelligence Agency، Iran considers this achievement imminent since the country enjoys many capabilities: 
Iran's ballistic missile capability which are reserved for long-range shootings in order to deter the enemies from seizing the land. 
Iran has the largest missile arsenal in the Middle East with a large number of short، middle and long-range guided ballistic missiles which is rightly considered the ultimate strategic weapon and can deliver a payload more than 2000 km away with high accuracy. The missiles could hit any target all over the Middle East. 
Iran has a very expansive missile program and which is growing both in size and complexity; the United States has been trying to stop Iran from reaching this goal by it propaganda for years in vain. 
Making use of its geo-strategic situation along the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hurmoz، Iran has expanded its naval capacities based on the asymmetrical tactics using countless weapons and platforms it can utilize to conquer the naval forces of the enemy. 
An extensive range of capacities are within Iran's reach including: anti-submarine missiles، fast marine boats، naval mines، submarines، drones and anti-submarine warfare carriers. 
It is also mentioned in the very same report that "Iran is the only country in the Persian Gulf with a submarine fleet." 
It was just a part of Iran's military capabilities، mentioned by the American Defense Intelligence Agency، and would probably be used in order to execute regional policies by the military men of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran's spiritual influence among the regional nations is the most important factor in managing the regional transformation and what the American military system is least aware of. It is the very influence which unveils the borderless Qods Force of the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps mentioned by the Supreme Leader in Tehran's Friday Prayers. This force showed off its millions of soldiers during the funeral ceremonies of martyr Haj Qasem Soleimani in Iraq، Lebanon، Palestine، Kashmir، Pakistan …
Following Iran's act of vengeance (attacking Ain al-Assad Air Base) after the killing of commander Soleimani، the countries or actors struggling in their relations with the United States of America will act with more confidence against the White House's interferences and invasions. Some of the recent explicit oppositions against the arrogant demeanor of the White House include the United States Air Force E-11A crash in Ghazni Province، Afghanistan and the Taliban Spokesman Zabihollah Mojahed's statements in regards to accepting the responsibility of shooting the plane and emphasizing the fact that Taliban's anti-American missions will continue in the future، Iraqi parliament vote to expel US troops and them demanding their government to end an agreement to host US troops and nearly a million of Iraqi protesters on the streets of Baghdad (25 January) to express their anti-American feelings. The public opinion holds the American officials responsible for radicalizing the political and security climate in West Asia by employing terroristic methods in managing the changes. 
The anti-American movement and people's demand for cutting the interfering hand of the United States from the countries have imposed a heavy cost on the White House and will cost it even more in the future. The American Secretary of the States' failure in dealing with recent Lebanon's transformations (formation of the cabinet led by Hassan Diab) resulted in Pompeo's desperate tone as a defeated politician. He said that the United States will only cooperate with an uncorrupted government in Lebanon which is devoted to reformation and will meet people's demands. Unsatisfied with transformations in Lebanon، he tries to provoke the new government against Hezbollah. In order to implicitly meddle with the affairs، he said that the protests in Lebanon are telling that Hezbollah is no longer enough. In order to undermine the resistance movement formed after the assassination of martyr Soleimani، he found himself forced to distort the realities and resort to wrong deductions. However، both Pompeo and the temporary president of the White House must know that their misguided calculations have made the political-security and strategic balance of the region quite against the United States' interests.


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